Housing Market Insights from Logan Mohtashami: Trends and Analysis

Housing Delinquency Data Perspective

Logan Mohtashami addresses a viral chart that misrepresented housing delinquency data. He provides clarity on the actual state of the housing market by distinguishing between single-family and multifamily sectors.

Single-Family Housing Delinquencies

• Single-family delinquency data is "near record lows" due to most loans in the past 14 years being backed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
• Out of 51 million loans in America, approximately 40% of homes don't even have a mortgage
• Foreclosure data remains low due to substantial equity homeowners have accumulated
• When homeowners experience financial stress, it typically appears first in new listings data

"The single family delinquency data is near record lows... majority of the loans being done in the last 14 years were Freddie and Fannie."

Multifamily Housing Concerns

• Apartment sector delinquencies have been rising for years (since 2019), not suddenly
• Challenges in multifamily relate to debt rollover for apartment construction
• Apartments with short-term debt are vulnerable when interest rates rise rapidly
• While some investors will face losses and apartment values may decline, this is "not housing 2008"

Current Mortgage Rate Environment

Logan notes that mortgage rates are approaching their lowest point of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield recently reaching 4.14%.

• Purchase application data is now positive, unlike last year when mortgage rates were heading toward 7.5%
• Housing market is becoming more balanced with slower price growth and increasing inventory
• A key technical level for the 10-year Treasury yield has held despite "crazy headlines" and "weaker economic data"

"It's the first time that purchase application data is positive, our weekly datas are now positive. It's much different than last year."

Economic Factors Affecting Housing

Tariff Concerns and Market Impact

• Economic data has been "coming softer" with ISM new orders data "tanking"
• Pending tariff announcements create market uncertainty
• Manufacturing surveys indicate businesses are concerned about potential trade wars
• The economic backdrop is different from 2018-19 tariff situations, with potentially greater market impact

Federal Reserve Outlook

• Lower 10-year yields could reach 3.80% with a few bad labor reports
• Logan suggests housing stability and balance are improving, with slower price growth and increased inventory
• The current economic environment is described as "all over the place" with many variables affecting the market

"I want slower price growth, I want more inventory, I want a more stable housing market. I'm getting this. This is why last year I was happy and this year I'm even more happy."

Housing Market Direction

Logan expresses optimism about the direction of the housing market, noting improved demand metrics even without rates reaching his ideal target levels.

• Forward-looking demand data is improving
• Inventory is growing, creating better market balance
• Price growth is moderating to healthier levels
• Despite economic uncertainty, the housing market fundamentals are strengthening